Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Stay on Marriages Indefinitely

My take on the 9th Circuit ruling late yesterday: If you follow the timeline of the 9th Circuit appeal of Judge Walker's ruling, even with the fast-tracking of the case and the strict deadlines for getting papers in, it's likely we won't see a ruling from the 9th Circuit until the beginning of 2011.

Whatever happens there it will no doubt go to the Supreme Court, which would most certainly keep a stay in place even if the 9th Circuit affirms Judge Walker's ruling. And then it's with the Supreme Court for much of next year -- a faster process than many had predicted (some were thinking we'd get a SCOTUS decision in 3 to 5 years), but slower than we'd hoped in just the past week. Of course, it's possible that the 9th Circuit rules fairly quickly -- in a matter of days after closing arguments in early December -- that the Prop 8 proponents have no standing in the case, and the Supreme Court could agree fairly quickly. In that scenario we'd see marriages in California happening much more quickly, but Prop 8 would not be the case that would take marriage equality to the rest of the country via the Supreme Court. Just my guessing.We'll get into it all on the show today and speak with legal experts to get the full deal.